Kibbles and Picks 2023 – Week 1
That’s right, folks! Everybody’s favorite online man-versus-dog head-to-head NFL picks feature is back for another year.
It’s Kibbles and Picks!
This marks the 11th year of this feature. For a decade, K&P was a staple of the online presence of The Maine Edge, but this year, we’re making a move, joining the team at Downtown with Rich Kimball. Stella and I both offer hearty thanks to Rich and the gang for bringing us on board and welcoming us even more thoroughly into the Downtown family.
For those keeping score – or who are seeing this feature for the very first time – here’s the deal. Every week, I will pick the winners of every NFL contest. And every week, my dog Stella will also pick winners. We will tally our respective scores and see who makes the most accurate picks over the course of the season.
Simple, right?
Of course, those who follow the feature are aware that, despite the fact that I am a reasonably well-informed semi-professional football knower, I tend to, well … lose. Stella has spent the past decade displaying a frankly remarkable degree of predictive acumen. We’re talking eight wins over the course of our 10 seasons doing this.
You’d think that after a decade of more-or-less steady humiliation at the adorable paws of my dog would prompt me to end the experiment. In truth, it’s rather the opposite – I’m proud of Stella’s accomplishments, even if I don’t fully grasp how exactly this is happening.
So, with Week 1’s kickoff looming, the time has come for Kibbles and Picks to launch a new season in our new home. Stella and I are at odds in seven of the week’s 16 contests, so we’ve got a nice little set of conflicts brewing for our first week at Downtown.
First up is the Carolina/Atlanta matchup. I’ve got the visiting Panthers pulling down the win over the Falcons. Now, I’m not sure that Bryce Young is going to have a great year in Carolina – rookie QBs tend to struggle – but I like the frisky energy that the Panthers have displayed thus far. Will it be enough to beat the Falcons? I think so. Stella, for her part, disagrees. She’s anticipating a solid leap forward for Atlanta in general and QB Desmond Ritter in particular. She also expects big things from rookie running back Bijan Robinson. She also thinks that the Falcons D has improved enough to give Carolina some trouble. We both think it’ll be close, however.
From there, it’s off to the Big Easy where the Titans are facing off against the host Saints. I’m going with Tennessee here, largely because I don’t think New Orleans will have much of an answer for the Derrick Henry show. Is Henry bound to regress, with all the wear and tear of past seasons? Sure – but not yet. Expect a grinder of a game, particularly with the Saints struggling to assemble much in the way of defense. Stella’s anticipating a Saints win, despite the absence of playmaker Alvin Kamara. She likes what she’s seen from the New Orleans passcatchers – she’s a particular believer in Chris Olave – and thinks they can do enough to overcome a big day on the ground from Henry and company.
I’ve picked the Packers to go into Chicago and beat the Bears, although I don’t feel great about it. Can Jordan Love hold up under the pressure of replacing Green Bay icon Aaron Rodgers? I think so – he’s got some weapons in RB Aaron Jones and wideout Christian Watson – but we won’t know until he hits the field. I think the Packers D is good enough to keep the Bears from doing much in the passing game. Stella agrees to an extent, but doesn’t think the Bears need to pass much to win this game, thanks to the electric playmaking from QB Justin Fields. She anticipates Fields and the collection of Bears backs will hold it down in the ground game, allowing just enough room for a big aerial play or two. It might be an ugly one, but she’s calling the Bears win.
With Las Vegas visiting Denver, we have the fourth contest in a row where I’m picking the road team. Look, I’m not sold on the Raiders being anything resembling a good team. That said, there’s potential here. I think Jimmy Garoppolo will be perfectly serviceable and I’m betting on a big game from Davante Adams and I think RB Josh Jacobs has something to prove; TE Dustin Waller will be missed initially, but keep an eye on rookie Michael Mayer. Stella, on the other hand, is counting on home cooking saving the day for Denver. She’s expecting a bounceback season from Russell Wilson this year – a bounceback that starts with this game. Jerry Jeudy is dinged up, but Courtland Sutton is still here and rookie Marvin Mims Jr. could be the real deal. She also thinks an up-and-down Broncos secondary will be up in this game, thanks to a little bit of erratic play from Jimmy G.
Next up, we have Philadelphia visiting New England. As always, I’m picking with my heart here, even though if I’m honest with myself, I recognize that there’s almost zero chance the Pats keep it within two TDs, let alone win. The hope is that Rhamondre Stevenson and Zeke Elliott can get the run game going and give Mac Jones a chance to do some things through the air. The defense is better than the offense, though that isn’t saying much. Basically, this is my attempt to manifest a New England win. Stella, as always, scoffs at my sentimentality. She expects the Eagles to dominate every facet of the game. She thinks Jalen Hurts will absolutely pick apart the Pats secondary, moving the ball at will. She also expects that the Eagles pass rush will have Jones on the run all day. Usually, she quietly judges me for these picks, but this week, she’s openly mocking me. Which is OK – frankly, I deserve it.
On to Los Angeles, where I have the home Chargers holding serve against the visiting Dolphins. I was back and forth on this one, because I do think the Dolphins are going to be good, but I’m putting my faith into Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and the rest of LA’s offensive cohort; these guys can score points when they’re right, even against a defense with the kind of solid personnel that Miami’s got. Basically, I’m hoping for a shootout. Stella is in on the Dolphins this year, though she acknowledges that a lot of that rides on continued health for QB Tua Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill remains one of the best wideouts in the league and there are a couple of other solid weapons on offense. Meanwhile, she also thinks that this is one of the best-coached teams in the league, which she expects will be enough to push the Dolphins to the W here.
Lastly, in the Sunday night game, I’ve got the home Giants winning over the visiting Cowboys. I’ll concede that this might be a reach, but I have a good feeling about the G-Men. I think Daniel Jones will continue to progress under center and that Saquon Barkley will be excellent (until he gets hurt). There are some interesting new additions on both sides of the ball and I’m not sold on Dallas. Stella is DEFINITELY sold on Dallas. She’s not expecting a Super Bowl run or anything, but she’s got Dak Prescott penciled in for a big year through the air, with CeeDee Lamb being the primary WR beneficiary. She also likes Tony Pollard to strut his stuff following the departure of Zeke Elliott. Oh, and the defense is led by do-everything linebacker Micah Parsons, who has a case for the best player in the league on that side of the ball. She’s picking the Cowboys to win in a walk.
And there we have it: the 11th Week 1 of this nonsense. Will this be the season I finally pick up a third victory? Or will I be confronted with canine celebration yet again? Honestly, I think we all know the answer to that question, but hey – that’s why they play the games.
Welcome back to Kibbles and Picks.
(winners in caps)
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ALLEN’S PICKS
Thursday, September 7
Detroit at KANSAS CITY
Sunday, September 10
CAROLINA at Atlanta
CINCINNATI at Cleveland
JACKSONVILLE at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay at MINNESOTA
TENNESSEE at New Orleans
SAN FRANCISCO at Pittsburgh
Arizona at WASHINGTON
Houston at BALTIMORE
GREEN BAY at Chicago
LAS VEGAS at Denver
Philadelphia at NEW ENGLAND
Miami at LA CHARGERS
LA Rams at SEATTLE
Dallas at NY GIANTS
Monday, September 11
BUFFALO at NY Jets
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STELLA’S PICKS
Thursday, September 7
Detroit at KANSAS CITY
Sunday, September 10
Carolina at ATLANTA
CINCINNATI at Cleveland
JACKSONVILLE at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay at MINNESOTA
Tennessee at NEW ORLEANS
SAN FRANCISCO at Pittsburgh
Arizona at WASHINGTON
Houston at BALTIMORE
Green Bay at CHICAGO
Las Vegas at DENVER
PHILADELPHIA at New England
MIAMI at LA Chargers
LA Rams at SEATTLE
DALLAS at NY Giants
Monday, September 11
BUFFALO at NY Jets 